Key Insights Highlight Shifting Consumer Behavior, Economic Recovery, and Growth Opportunities for the Folding Carton Market
Fastmarkets RISI has released its 2025–26 Trends Industry Outlook & Market Data Report, prepared exclusively for the Paperboard Packaging Council (PPC). This year’s report provides a detailed analysis of the U.S. and Canadian folding carton markets, exploring how evolving economic policies, inflation expectations, and changing consumer behaviors are shaping near- and long-term industry performance.
Following the pandemic and post-lockdown restocking surges that drove record carton shipments through 2022, the market has now entered a period of recalibration. As inflation tightened budgets and spending shifted back toward services, folding carton shipments declined 4.8% from 2023 to 2024. Entering 2025, early signs of growth, such as easing inflation and strong employment, were tempered by renewed economic uncertainty, fluctuating consumer confidence, and policy shifts impacting trade and production.
Despite these challenges, the long-term outlook remains steady. Fastmarkets RISI projects folding carton demand to grow at an average annual rate of 0.8% through 2029, reaching 5.3 million tons. Growth will be supported by improved consumer spending, stronger industrial production, and continued substitution away from plastic packaging as sustainability expectations accelerate across the value chain.
The report notes that while folding carton shipments surged 11.6% between 2019 and 2022, the pace of expansion has moderated as consumers balance goods and services spending. Non-durable goods production, that are an important driver of carton demand, is forecast to grow 0.8% annually through 2029, buoyed by a weaker U.S. dollar that supports exports and global competitiveness.
Seven end-use markets are expected to expand by more than 1% annually, including food, beverages, cosmetics and toiletries, pharmaceuticals, household supplies, and recreational goods. Eight markets are projected to remain stable, while two—primarily in processed foods are forecast to decline slightly as consumer preferences continue to evolve.
On the pricing front, cartonboard costs have consistently outpaced folding carton price growth, rising 4.4% per year between 2014 and 2024 compared to 3.0% for folding cartons. This imbalance continues to challenge independent converters, though modest stabilization is expected as demand levels out and economic policies take effect.
In Canada, folding carton shipments increased for four consecutive years through 2023, reaching 511,000 tons valued at C$1.64 billion, before declining 5.1% in 2024 amid slower consumer spending and reduced food manufacturing output. The upcoming closure of a major cartonboard mill in 2026, reducing national capacity by roughly 24%, is projected to lower shipments by 1.1% annually through 2029, to 460,000 tons. While this will tighten supply, Fastmarkets RISI notes that the impact on independent converters may be less severe given the mill’s integration structure.
Though near-term growth faces headwinds from inflation, policy uncertainty, and evolving consumer priorities, underlying fundamentals, including employment strength, sustainability-driven substitution, and steady demand for non-durable goods, continue to support the folding carton sector’s long-term resilience.
A free public summary of the 2025–26 Trends Industry Outlook & Market Data Report is available here. The full report and overview are exclusively available for PPC members in the Member Portal.
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